







Macroscopically, US non-farm payrolls data for May rose by just 75000 on Friday, less than half the expected level and the lowest in three months. The United States and Mexico reached an agreement that Trump announced that the measures to impose tariffs on Mexico would be "suspended indefinitely," superimposed the news of poor non-agricultural data, and strengthened market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, with the yield on 10-year US Treasuries falling to a 20-month low at one point. But it rose earlier this morning, rising more than 1.5% and returning to 2.1%. U. S. stocks closed higher last week and rose the most in more than half a year. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the offshore renminbi fell below three hurdles in a row, falling nearly 400 points on Friday, hitting a seven-month low in intraday trading. This week focused on some of China's data, including imports and exports in May, money supply year-on-year, new renminbi loans, incremental social financing and foreign exchange reserves.
Nickel price judgment: after a period of downward adjustment, the current absolute price of nickel is relatively low, stimulating the spot procurement demand that once slowed down in the lower reaches of the earlier period, and also making many short positions wait and see. And 300 series stainless steel did not see a significant reduction in production, demand rigidity still exists, is expected to temporarily enter the low consolidation period. As the expectation of a sustained increase in nickel pig iron supply is still in the process of being fulfilled, the opening of the import window has also led to a low recovery in domestic inventories, which is still difficult to be optimistic in the later stage. The trend of the main multi-air forces on the capital side and the follow-up plan for the entry of goods into the bonded area are still worthy of continued close attention.
Nickel spot market: on Friday, Russia nickel than Wuxi 1906 universal discount 100 to 50 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel than Wuxi 1906 contract generally reported 900 to 1000 yuan / ton. In the morning, some traders rose 800 yuan / ton trading part of Jinchuan nickel, but later basically raised Jinchuan Shengshui. The market price is consolidated around 9.63-96400 yuan / ton, and the market activity is slightly improved compared with the day before. Traders feedback that the inventory in the early downstream is relatively low. Now the absolute price is appropriate, and they begin to purchase in the market. Jinchuan supplies due to recent logistics reasons. The supply of goods in Shanghai is a little tight, and the rising water has picked up.
Nickel pig iron market: according to SMM research, a steel mill in the south this week cut the inquiry price of high nickel iron to 940 yuan / nickel point, including tax, 20 yuan / nickel point lower than Monday's inquiry price, not heard of the deal. The transaction price of high nickel iron in a steel mill in East China this week is 955 yuan / nickel, including tax, which is 5 yuan / nickel point lower than the last purchase price. Subsequently, due to the impact of the continuous fall in price, the steel mill suspended the inquiry for 955 yuan / nickel point. In June, as the supply of nickel iron becomes more abundant, if the stainless steel terminal is still not improved, the profits of steel mills continue to narrow, and steel mills either choose to overhaul and reduce production, or continue to suppress the price of raw materials, will further drag down the price of nickel and iron. Ferronickel is expected to remain tipped.
Stainless steel market: market, last week 200 series, 300 series stainless steel prices are slightly reduced by 50 100 yuan / ton, 400 series prices remain stable operation. Since Tuesday, the guiding price of 300 series steel mills has not been adjusted, as of Thursday, Wuxi market, 304 2B four feet (Hongwang) quoted 13700 to 13800 yuan / ton; Some agents said that they would allow a profit of 50 to 100 yuan per ton according to the specific trading conditions of the order. The price of waste stainless steel market fell steadily last week, with 304 aggregate quoted at 8600 yuan per ton, down 50 to 100 yuan per ton compared with last week.
In terms of inventories, 164000 tons of nickel were in stock on Friday, down 18 tons from Thursday.
According to the SMM survey, the total amount of nickel stocks in Shanghai, including the previous warehouse receipt stocks, increased by 363 tons, or 0.6 per cent, from last week to 57200 tons. Stocks in East China rose 2200 tons to 26200 tons from last week, while refined nickel stocks in Shanghai Free Trade Zone fell 3000 tons to 19900 tons from last week.
In terms of output, according to SMM research, the national natural monthly output of electrolytic nickel in May 2019 was 12900 tons, an increase of 5.70 percent over the same period last year. In May, the national electrolytic nickel production increased by 2.62% over April. The production of electrolytic nickel remained normal in May, and the slight increase in production was mainly due to the increase of natural days.
In May 2019, the national nickel pig iron decreased by 0.31% to 47800 nickel tons, an increase of 28.13% over the same period last year. Among them, the production of high nickel pig iron in May decreased by 1.58 per cent to 41000 nickel tons compared with April. In May, Indonesia produced 27700 nickel tons of nickel pig iron, an increase of 2.15 per cent on a month-on-month basis. Two 42000KVA RKEF capacity utilisation units, which were put into production at the nickel pig iron plant in the Morowali area in January and March, continued to climb the slope, while two more 42000KVA RKEF units were released at the end of May. The two 33000KVA RKEF units that went into production at the nickel pig iron plant in the Konawe area in early April and mid-May also released increments, and the 11th RKEF capacity utilization rate, which was put into production in March, continued to climb. The first 33000KVA RKEF at a nickel pig iron plant on Obi Island was officially released in the early hours of May 27. Production at another nickel pig iron plant on Obi Island, which arranged repairs at a 33000KVA RKEF plant in mid-May, fell month-on-month.
In May, China produced 11440 tons of nickel sulfate, with a physical output of 52000 tons, a month-on-month ratio of 5.8 percent, an increase of 32.15 percent over the same period last year.
In May 2019, the national output of stainless steel was 2.496 million tons, an increase of 6.44 percent over the previous month and 25.23 percent over the same period last year. According to the division, the output of the third series in May was 1.158 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 per cent compared with the previous month.
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